EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION - POTENTIAL FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

AN ARDL APPROACH

  • ADEGBOYEGA RAYMOND RAHAJ, Dr Department of Accounting and Banking & Finance Faculty of Social and Management Sciences Olabisi Onabanjo University, P. M. B. 2002, Ago - Iwoye, Ogun State, Nigeria
Keywords: Economic growth, Agricultural Export, Export diversification, Manufacturing export, Oil export

Abstract

T he main focus of this paper is to examine the impact of export diversification on economic growth in Nigeria. The common belief is that the addition of a commodity to a country's export list would ordinarily be expected to help diversify that country's export but this is not the case in Nigeria. With the emergence of petroleum the trend toward diversification was abruptly reversed. The export diversification hypothesis was tested using an empirical growth model between 1981 and 2016. Our analysis is based on both descriptive and statistical methods. The Augmented Dickey- Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron were used to test for the time series properties, while ARDL and ECM models were used to confirm the existence of long run and short run equilibrium relationship among variables. Granger causality test was also carried out to determine the direction of causation of the variables. Controlling for other variables that affect growth, export diversification alone and its interaction with growth in per capita export volumes is found to be highly significant in explaining real GDP growth over the 1981-2016 period. The study among other things encourages the government to strengthen the legislative and supervisory framework of the non-oil sectors in Nigeria and diversify the economy to ensure maximum contributions from all sectors to the economic growth of Nigeria

Published
2018-08-16